Puzzle 13 of 26 · Hard
The card after the first ace
You shuffle a deck and turn the cards over one at a time until the first ace appears. What’s the chance the very next card is the king of hearts?
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Answer: 1/52 ≈ 1.92%
Step 1 · Take the king of hearts out
Build the shuffle in two steps: shuffle the other 51 cards, then put the king of hearts back into a random gap.
Step 2 · Gaps it could go back into
Each of the 52 gaps is equally likely, and the order of the other cards is untouched.
Step 3 · Gaps that put it right after the first ace
Whatever the first ace is, exactly one gap sits right after it. So the chance is the same as for any one card.
Step 4 · Chance
One good gap out of 52 equally likely ones.
Answer
Step 4 of 4